Falling OPEC+ supply should lend support to oil prices – Commerzbank

Reuters and Bloomberg will be publishing their surveys of OPEC production in October at the beginning of next week. Falling supply is set to underpin oil prices, with Brent Crude Oil trading around $96, strategists at Commerzbank report.

Oil market is likely to tighten

“Output is likely to have fallen marginally, in line with the OPEC+ decision, before it is reduced considerably more sharply in November. The deviation from the agreed production target will probably remain sizeable given that many OPEC countries have already been falling significantly short of their targets for months now.”

“The oil market is likely to tighten as a result, especially since the EU’s oil embargo that will come into force in early December should likewise drive down the supply of oil from Russia.”

“We see Brent well supported at its current level of around $96 per barrel.”