GBP/USD: Impact of new Northern Ireland deal may be only short-lived – ING

The Pound is one of the best-performing currencies since the start of the week after the confirmation of a new UK-EU deal on Northern Ireland. However, this impact might prove to be only temporary, economists at ING report.

GBP may continue to prove more resilient than other pro-cyclical currencies

“It seems hard that the Pound will find sustained support simply based on the new NI deal. The central bank story should instead remain the most central driver of GBP, and given the lack of data today, markets will watch three Bank of England speakers today: Jon Cunliffe, Huw Pill and Catherine Mann.”

“Markets are definitely swinging on the hawkish side, expecting a total of 80 bps of tightening before reaching a peak. For now, the global central bank narrative and improving UK data are not giving many reasons to unwind such hawkish expectations, and the GBP may continue to prove more resilient than other pro-cyclical currencies.”