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12 Jul 2013
Flash: Chinese data looms, could cause stir next week – Deutsche Bank
FXstreet.com (New York) - In China, the disappointing trade numbers earlier this week seems to have set off increasing market discussions of possible stimulus, warns Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank.
This has spurred a strong rally in the Shanghai Composite (+5.5% over the last two days). A number of Chinese cyclical stocks in the cement, smelting and steel industries have bounced an impressive 5-15% in the last few days albeit off multi-year lows in many instances.
China's Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said overnight that the country's expected GDP growth rate in the first half of this year will be slightly lower than 7.7%. He said that there is no doubt that China can achieve its growth targets, though the seven-percent goal should not be considered as the bottom line. In fact, he specifically mentioned that 6.5% would be tolerable. Either way, “an interesting few days are in store for the China macro story with Q2 GDP scheduled for Monday next week and money and credit data for the month of June due over the next few days.” the analysts note.
This has spurred a strong rally in the Shanghai Composite (+5.5% over the last two days). A number of Chinese cyclical stocks in the cement, smelting and steel industries have bounced an impressive 5-15% in the last few days albeit off multi-year lows in many instances.
China's Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said overnight that the country's expected GDP growth rate in the first half of this year will be slightly lower than 7.7%. He said that there is no doubt that China can achieve its growth targets, though the seven-percent goal should not be considered as the bottom line. In fact, he specifically mentioned that 6.5% would be tolerable. Either way, “an interesting few days are in store for the China macro story with Q2 GDP scheduled for Monday next week and money and credit data for the month of June due over the next few days.” the analysts note.