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11 Dec 2015
UK key events coming up - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities noted the key events for the UK coming up for next week.
Key Quotes:
"November Inflation (15 Dec): There are two important nominal data points for the MPC this week. First up, November might be the last positive growth month for fuel prices for a while, as the new leg down in oil prices is likely to weigh again on UK inflation in coming months. But we still see overall headline inflation rising gradually through the new year, and see upside risks to November’s print as we look for headline inflation of 0.2% y/y (vs consensus of 0.0% y/y), and core inflation of 1.2% y/y (consensus: 1.1% y/y).
October Unemployment & Wages (16 Dec): The 3mma unemployment rate likely held steady at 5.3% in October (consensus: 5.3%). Labour market tightness has eased, and this will be clearly indicated by private-sector regular pay growth, which we think will drop below 2.0% y/y after seeing growth above 3% for much of this year. The slowdown in nominal wage growth was flagged in this week’s MPC minutes, and will bear watching.
November Retail Sales (17 Dec): Retail sales have been thrown around in recent months by special factors (eg, the Rugby World Cup), but we think these one-offs are now out of the way. Consequently, UK retail sales are likely to have increased a more normal 0.2% m/m, and consensus is likely getting a little too far ahead of itself with its anticipated 0.5% m/m gain. We’d even go so far as saying that downside risks to our forecast are possible—anecdotal evidence suggests that Black Friday sales were disappointing in the UK, in part because one of the major retailers decided not to participate."
Key Quotes:
"November Inflation (15 Dec): There are two important nominal data points for the MPC this week. First up, November might be the last positive growth month for fuel prices for a while, as the new leg down in oil prices is likely to weigh again on UK inflation in coming months. But we still see overall headline inflation rising gradually through the new year, and see upside risks to November’s print as we look for headline inflation of 0.2% y/y (vs consensus of 0.0% y/y), and core inflation of 1.2% y/y (consensus: 1.1% y/y).
October Unemployment & Wages (16 Dec): The 3mma unemployment rate likely held steady at 5.3% in October (consensus: 5.3%). Labour market tightness has eased, and this will be clearly indicated by private-sector regular pay growth, which we think will drop below 2.0% y/y after seeing growth above 3% for much of this year. The slowdown in nominal wage growth was flagged in this week’s MPC minutes, and will bear watching.
November Retail Sales (17 Dec): Retail sales have been thrown around in recent months by special factors (eg, the Rugby World Cup), but we think these one-offs are now out of the way. Consequently, UK retail sales are likely to have increased a more normal 0.2% m/m, and consensus is likely getting a little too far ahead of itself with its anticipated 0.5% m/m gain. We’d even go so far as saying that downside risks to our forecast are possible—anecdotal evidence suggests that Black Friday sales were disappointing in the UK, in part because one of the major retailers decided not to participate."