Aussie retail sales preview - what to expect in AUD/USD?

AUD/USD, despite being rejected on the 0.77 handle, the unit remains within the ascending 1st March channel and in positive territory. There has, however, been a major set-back after the greenback managed a decent bid due to the positive surprises in the ISM data, underpinned by a solid nonfarm payrolls report as well and ahead of an important week for the Aussie given the forthcoming RBA. However, we start with retail sales.

After a quiet spell from Australia's calendar, the price has been allowed to continue climbing, mostly due to a better performance in commodities and a weaker greenback of late. However, things start to mount up this week in respect of data for Australia and the AUD/USD has started the week out with a drift to the downside in early Asia, having recovered from just below the 0.76 handle when the bulls picked up the Aussie after the nonfarm payrolls sell-off.

AUD/USD: buying dips but lack of follow through - FXStreet

Australia retail sales expectations

Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) - Australia

For today, Australia Feb retail sales are going to be the first piece of data for the week and these will be released at 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK. Analysts at Westpac are expecting another lacklustre 0.3% m/m gain while the market median is 0.4%. "Feb consumer confidence was ‘neutral’ while household budgets have been getting a boost from lower fuel prices, down 9% over the 6 months to Feb. The broader consumer spending measures in the national accounts however was stronger than retail sales in the second half of 2015."

AUD/USD levels to monitor

AUD/USD on its way to 0.7830 - Socgen

AUD/USD has been rejected on the 0.77 handle at three occasions since 30th March with a high of 0.7722 so far. The 100 sma on the 4hr chart had been an area of support since the 17th March high of 0.7680 and the price has managed a series of higher lows since 0.7477 (23rd March low) in pursuit of a daily close in the 0.77 handle.

AUD/USD turning less bullish?

As Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet, noted, in the 4 hours chart, the price remains above a bullish 20 SMA.

However, the bullish scenario has started to lose some conviction and she argued that the technical indicators have turned slightly lower within neutral territory, indicating diminishing buying interest around 0.7700. "Nevertheless, a clear break above last week high of 0.7722 should lead to a continued advance, up to 0.7800 in the short term, but closer to the 0.8000 mark, later on the week."