Japan: Snap elections likely on October 22 - BBH

It looks increasingly likely that Japan's Prime Minister Abe will call for snap elections, probably slated for October 22, which is nearly a year early, suggests the research team at BBH.  

Key Quotes

“It is a politically astute move.  Public support had waned over various scandals and allegations, which may have contributed to the LDP's stunning defeat in Tokyo elections a few months ago.  Abe responded by a reshuffling of his cabinet, while the tensions with North Korea gave him an opportunity to lead.  Support for Abe and the LDP has risen.  Meanwhile, the main opposition party, Democrat Party of Japan, is in disarray and divided.  The election may be too soon for Tokyo Governor Koike to consolidate the new movement.”  

“The likely re-election of Abe speaks to the continuity of policy, and this means Kuroda or at least Kuroda-esque policies.  Kuroda's term expires next year, and Japan's tradition is for a governor to have a single term.  Many suspect Kuroda could be reappointed, but are not particularly confident.”

“The broader issue is whether the next Governor is in line with an activist stance associated with Kuroda (whose name means black rice paddy) or a reversion back to the traditional stance represented by Kuroda's predecessor Shirakawa (whose name means white river).  This is also supported by the dissent from the BOJ's decision not to change policy.  It was a call to do more, unlike previous dissents, to do less.”