BOC to raise the overnight rate by 25bps today – RBC CM

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets offer a brief sneak peek on what to expect from today’s Bank of Canada’s (BOC) monetary policy decision.

Key Quotes:

“We expect the BoC to raise the overnight rate by 25bp at Wednesday's meeting.

Clear signs of diminished labor market slack.

And an economy operating at full capacity.

Should outweigh rising trade tensions with the US.

Risks around a possible US withdrawal from NAFTA will likely once again be the biggest concern weighing on the BoC, but absent an imminent withdrawal notice, they should feel comfortable bumping up the overnight rate to its post-crisis high of 1.25%.

Indeed, Q4 Business Outlook Survey results suggest firms' hiring and investment intentions are elevated despite trade uncertainties. The impact of an expected increase to US growth for 2018 (currently at 2.2%) will likely outweigh a downgrade to Q4 growth from 2.5% to something close to our current monitoring of 1.7% in the updated projection.”