SEK’s outlook remains negative – Danske Bank

Stefan Mellin, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, gave his view on the Swedish Krona for the next months.

Key Quotes

“Our relatively bearish view on the SEK is based on two fundamental stories. First, the inflation outlook, which is on a downward slope and for CPIF ex energy – the core measure – well below the Riksbank’s estimate from April onwards”.

“Second, growth momentum, which is deteriorating markedly in 2018 on the back of house price deflation and the slowdown in housing investments. Both these arguments suggest that the Riksbank will not raise rates this year and not as quickly as the market is pricing in and the Riksbank indicates for coming years”.

“We stick to our forecast profile, where we see EUR/SEK at 9.90 in 1M, 10.00 in 3M, 9.90 in 6M and 9.80 in 12M”.