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26 Apr 2013
Forex Flash: US GDP figures look to take center stage – Deutsche Bank
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The US advanced Q1 GDP reading takes center-stage today with the market expecting a print of +3.0% QoQ annualized versus last quarter's +0.4% outturn. DB's economists warn that today's data will be revised 3x this year, once in each of the next two months and then again on July 31st when the Commerce Department releases extensive benchmark revisions to the national income accounts, which occurs only every handful of years.
The possibility of extensive revisions this year means that the Q1 2013 GDP results will have more 'noise' than normal. Indeed, “our economists believe the best approach is to focus on the general mix in economic output-meaning the balance between private final domestic demand, which is defined as real GDP less inventories, net exports and government spending versus the growth in inventories as a proxy for future underlying production.” write Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank.
The possibility of extensive revisions this year means that the Q1 2013 GDP results will have more 'noise' than normal. Indeed, “our economists believe the best approach is to focus on the general mix in economic output-meaning the balance between private final domestic demand, which is defined as real GDP less inventories, net exports and government spending versus the growth in inventories as a proxy for future underlying production.” write Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank.