EUR/USD: Core bull trend resumes, 1.2145/55 next main flagged resistance – Credit Suisse

EUR/USD has surged above resistance at 1.1916/26, driven by the resumption of the core USD bear trend and this ends its brief high-level consolidation phase. Economists at Credit Suisse maintain a core bullish outlook with 1.2145/55 as the next flagged and first major objective– which they look to cap at first for a fresh consolidation phase. Support rises to 1.1883/81.

Key quotes

“EUR/USD has removed with ease key resistance from its recent highs and downward sloping ‘neckline’ from its early 2018 top at 1.1916/26 and this marks the completion of a bullish continuation pattern to reassert the core uptrend.” 

“With a large base already in place above 1.1495, we maintain our core positive outlook and look for the uptrend to resume with resistance seen next at 1.1997 and then our 1.2145/55 next major flagged resistance – the point-of-breakdown from the early 2018 top and 78.6% retracement of the 2018/2020 bear trend. We will then look for this to cap at first for a fresh consolidation phase. But, we look for this to be followed by further gains in due course with the ’measured base objective’ seen at 1.2355 and with 1.2518/98 the next major area of meaningful resistance, which we expect to prove a much more formidable barrier.” 

“Near-term support moves to 1.1915/10, with 1.1883/81 ideally now holding to keep the immediate risk higher. A break can see a pullback to 1.1833/27, but now ideally below 1.1783.”