USD/RUB: Positive rouble reaction if the CBR hikes 75bps or 100bps – TDS

Russia's CBR is due to announce rates on Friday, July 23. Risks are tilted toward a larger 100bps hike, but economists at TD Securities think that the CBR will likely keep its powder dry for later. 

Another CBR hawkish meeting ahead

“We expect the CBR to hike 75bps and to leave the door open for more tightening.”

“We continue to like the rouble from a fundamental point of view and think that the large hike of 75bps or more will help strengthen the ruble.”

“Despite the OPEC+ agreement over the weekend, we think the negative impact on RUB will be limited, if any, if the downward adjustment in oil prices is gradual.”