S&P 500 Index: Weekly close below 4428 to warn of further weakness towards 4387/64 – Credit Suisse

The S&P 500 remains on course to the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 4438/28. Whilst analysts at Credit Suisse continue to look for an attempt to stabilize here, a weekly close below 4428 would warn of a more damaging downturn with next support seen at 4387/64.

Initial resistance is seen at 4495 

“We maintain our negative bias for our core objective of the key long-term 200-DMA, currently at 4438/28. Whilst our bias remains to look for stabilization here, a close below 4438/28 would be seen to raise the prospect for further weakness yet with support seen next at the 78.6% retracement of the rally from last October at 4396, then gap support at 4387/64.” 

“Of concern specifically for the S&P 500 is the weekly RSI momentum picture which if sustained into the close today would complete a major top. If confirmed, this would suggest that a rebound from the 200-DMA, if indeed even seen, is likely to be temporary.” 

“Resistance is seen at 4495 initially, then 4532, with the immediate risk seen staying lower whilst below 4602/12.” 

“VIX above 27.40 would warn of a further rise to 35.00.”