USD/JPY Price Analysis: Has room to rise towards rising wedge hurdle near 119.50
- USD/JPY consolidates below six-year highs of 119.40, as markets turn cautious.
- Fed/BOJ divergence, Ukraine crisis remain the underlying factors, influencing the pair.
- Rising wedge hurdle on the 4H chart at 119.52 remains a tough nut to crack.
USD/JPY is trading around a flat line below the six-year highs of 119.40 reached last Friday, as markets remain in limbo amid renewed Ukraine tensions and hawkish Fed.
The US Treasury yields are extending the previous rebound, as Fed officials hint at a 0.50% rate hike in May, underpinning the US dollar. This, in turn, keeps the downside cushioned in the major.
Meanwhile, the greenback also finds support from intensifying Ukraine-Russia crisis, with the Kremlin now stating that the progress in Ukraine talks 'less than we would like'.
Looking ahead, US President Joe Biden’s meeting with NATO leaders will be closely eyed later this Monday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech will also hog the limelight, as the Fed-BOJ monetary policy divergence will continue to weigh on the Japanese yen.
USD/JPY’s four-hour chart shows that the price is lacking follow-through upside momentum, at the moment.
With the Relative Strength Index (RSI), however, probing the overbought territory, there is some room to rise for the currency pair.
Therefore, the one-week-old rising wedge upside barrier at 119.52 remains on bulls’ radars should the spot catch a fresh bid-wave.
A sustained move above the latter will call for a test of the 110.00 round level.
USD/JPY: Four-hour chart
On rejection at the wedge hurdle, the price could head back towards the rising trendline (wedge) support at 118.95, below which the ascending 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 118.82 will be challenged.
Daily closing below the latter will confirm a bearish wedge, opening floors for a further correction towards bullish 50-SMA at 117.82.
The last line of defense for buyers is seen at the March 15 lows of 117.69.
USD/JPY: Additional levels to consider